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by Dr. Arnd Bernaerts



Did the cold March 2013 come from Siberia ?
 A not well founded claim!

Posted 03 April 2013 (ocl_9-9)
by Arnd Bernaerts 

First Addendum (08 April 2013): It is cold in NW Europe, not from Siberia .
Regional seas delay spring and man has contributed!

 Stefan Rahmstorf  (28/29 March 2013; at: Rabett Run wrote: “The media are debating if the decrease in  Arctic ice  is related to this winter's cold weather in Germany . This post discusses the most recent current research about this including the most important figures from relevant studies.

First, what does the unusual temperature distribution observed this March actually look like? Here is a map showing the data (up to and including March 25, NCEP / NCAR data plotted with KNMI Climate Explorer):  (graphic*) Freezing cold in Siberia, reaching across northwestern Europe, unusually mild temperatures over the Labrador Sea and parts of Greenland and a cold band diagonally across North America, from Alaska to Florida.“,  *Fig. 1.

 However, the “Freezing cold in Siberia ” seems to be exaggerated. Fig. 1 indicates only the mean temperature measured, but not anomalies. The following series of weekly TC anomalies forecasts since 14 Feb. 2013  (Fig. 2-8) indicate only a brief cold gush in early March (Fig. 3). All other temperature map indicates a cold anomaly only up to the Ural, which means that not all cold had been coming from the East, but the cold in Western Europe was presumably supported by lower then average sea water temperature in regional and coastal sea areas.  

Fig. 2;  14-21. Feb.

Fig. 3; 27.Feb.-7.Mar.

Fig. 4; 09-16. March

Fig. 5; 20-27 March


Fig. 6; 23-30 March

Fig. 7; 27.Mar.-03.Apr.

Fig. 8; 03.-10. April


 Some confirmation can be derived from a number of North Asian air temperature maps since the 5th March 2013 (Fig. 9-14). It seems hardly possible to detect any exceptional situations, particularly not after the 21st March. But the air  and sea water temperatures in the North- and Baltic Sea decreased throughout the March (HERE) ,

See the status per 31 March 2013 according Fig. 15-19  

Fig. 9; 05 March 2013

Fig. 10; 09 March 2013

Fig. 11; 13 March 2013

Fig. 12; 20 March 2013

Fig. 13; 21 March 2013

Fig. 14; 27 March 2013



MORE →→: 27. March 2013: Strong Start – Strong Ending; Winter 2012/13. About the Role of North- and Baltic Sea (2007seatraining 1310)

→→ 29 March 2012: Cold March 2013 in company with March 1942 & 1917 (co 10-2)


Record cold March night - 2013

 The impact became immediately know:

The Guardian, Sunday 31 March 2013, 18.35 BST, reports:

__ Easter Sunday coldest on record

Met Office confirms temperatures of -12.5C in Scottish Highlands, beating previous record of -9.8C set in 1986.

  • The UK has recorded its coldest Easter Sunday for more than 50 years, with overnight temperatures dipping to below -12C in Scotland. The Met Office confirmed it had registered a temperature of -12.5 in Braemar, Aberdeenshire, in the Scottish Highlands. With modern records dating back to 1960, Sunday's freezing weather beat the previous record of -9.8, set in 1986.
  • The Met Office said the month of March still looked set to be the coldest since 1962 and the fourth coldest since 1910.
  • From 1-26 March the UK mean temperature was 2.5C, three degrees below the long-term average.  

Poland (01 April) Heavy snow paralyzes Poland . Heavy snow falls dumped as much as 10 inches across the country on Sunday, and more is forecast for Monday as an unusually prolonged winter maintains a severe grip over the Central European country. THE TELEGRAPH

  Russia (01 April) Moscow ’s wintertime snowfall has left a layer of 65 centimeters, which is an all-time record for April 1st. The previous record, of 56 centimeters, was set in 1892 and 1942. Last month’s average air temperature was 4.5 degrees lower than normal. THE VOICE OF RUSSIA

Conditions on 31/04 + 01/04 2013

Extract from Fig. 16

Fig.15 , 16, 17 ; 31. April ; SST-Anomalies, Northern Europe and Global

Fig. 18 & 19; 01 April; Sea Ice Baltic


Record cold March month - 2013

  Great Britain : March 2013 became a record breaker in the United Kingdom (itv-com; HERE) .

Great Britain : March weather was second coldest on record - Met Office  (BBC 03 April)
Freezing temperatures in March made it the UK 's joint second coldest since records began more than 100 years ago, the Met Office has said. The mean temperature was just 2.2C (36F) - more than 3C colder than the long-term monthly average. Last month matched the average temperature in March 1947 - only March 1962 was colder at 1.9C (35F). March was also much drier than usual with 62.1mm (2.4in) of rain, 65% of the historical average for the month. Scotland was yet more parched with only 35% of its normal downpours. Ed Thomas reports from Saddleworth. Read More March 'was second coldest on record'  

Great Britain: “The UK 's coldest March in 50 years!” The Weather Channel, 3.April 2013:   HERE           

    Ireland – March 2013: Monthly mean temperatures were below average, with differences of -3C or more in most parts. Mean temperatures were the lowest on record nearly everywhere except in the South and Southwest. Dublin Airport reported a mean temperature of 3.1C, its coldest March since the site opened in 1942 (71 years), while Claremorris and Mullingar also reported their coldest March on record since opening in 1950 (63 years). Majority of stations in the South….. (MORE: Irish Met-Office /2nd April 2013 - PDF)

  Germany (source NTZ): March, 2013, was a record cold month, according German meteorologist Dominik Jung:
 “ In northeast Germany , March 2013 was even the coldest March in 130 years. However, not only Germany and wide areas of Europe suffered from the cold wave reports Dominik Jung: ‘Quite to the contrary, the dramatic negative temperature deviations from the 1981 -2010 longterm mean were widespread across western, central, eastern Europe, all the way to Siberia.  Moreover, there were many regions in North and South America where it was very cold. … the cold in Germany was no single isolated case here.”
Translation Pierre Gosselin, NTZ  

Germany  DEUTSCHER WETTERDIENST about March 2013 
(Extract from press release 28 March 2013 - in PDF) 
In Berlin , the  DWD reported that such abundant snow cover in the final 10 days of March had not been measured since 1892. The average March temperature in the German capital was only -0,7C (4,0C blow normal versus 1961 to 1990).
In the Potsdam district southwest of Berlin on March 24, the overnight low of -18.9C set a record for all-time coldest temperature ever recorded in the state of Brandenburg during the final third of March.  

Source: DWD – Deutscher Wetterdienst, 28. March 2013 in PDF

  Northern Europe 's Condition per 03 April 2013   

 TC –Forecast
03 – 19. April 2013

Fig. 20; TC Asia

Fig. 21; TC , N-Europe

Fig. 22 & 23; SST Anomalies

Fig. 24;

The Weather Channel: Monthly Outlook for April 2013  (HERE)

___First half: Temperature anomalies still running at between -3 to -4C over the UK , especially the east, and below -5C from northern Germany and southern Sweden to the Baltic States
___Secons half: northern half of Europe fairly dry and still quite cool, although anomalies not as low as the first week or two. The east coast of the UK may still be 2 or 3C below normal if…   


Sea temperatures are now several degrees below normal, especially the North Sea, with temperatures as we enter April between 2C near Denmark to 5C along the east coast of Britain . These low temperatures will undoubtedly have an impact on the Spring temperatures, and perhaps at times even early summer in eastern Britain when winds come from the east.


Special Presentation of Mean Sea Ice conditions in late March and those in March 2013!
The top ice extent in March 2013 was on or befor the 28th of March! 

Most Recent Published Mean Sea Ice Extent = average (= normal) ice conditions (1965-1986)

Fig. 25; 21 March

Fig. 26; 01 April

All Grahics from:

Maximum Sea Ice in the Baltic from about 18 March to End of March 2013

Fig. 27; 18. March 2013

Fig. 28; 25. March 2013

Fig. 29; 28. March 2013

First Addendum: It is cold in NW Europe, not from Siberia .
Regional seas delay spring and man has contributed!

 In addition the the outlook by Weather Channel (HERE) for April 2013 two more:

__ April chill to last for two more weeks, The Telegraph, 05 Apr 2013;

Spring could still be some way off, with temperatures remaining lower than normal for another fortnight, forecasters have warned.

__UK Outlook for Thursday 11 Apr 2013 to Saturday 20 Apr 2013;

  • __ Generally unsettled and often rather windy at first, with occasionally heavy rain, perhaps hill snow in the north,…
  • __ still below average further north

Unfortunately, none say anything about the reason, although it is very obvious that the southern Baltic and North Sea are far too cold for the season (Fig. 30-32), and any claim that tis is caused by cold air from Siberia, is unfounded (Fig. 33-34). Actually, while the NE Baltic is already in a warming up trend, HERE – 4th Add. 05 April, at the EMS-Station in the North Sea the temperature reached a seasonal minimum on the 5th April HERE.

More important then the mere recording is the question what pushed and kept the regional seas to such low sea water temperatures. Human activities have a good chance to turn out as a substantial contributor. It is a big shame that science no nothing about it, and even seems incapable to see the need to investigate and to understand. The temperature maps Fig. 15 & Fig. 33 show clearly that the cold air conditions in Northern Europe are closely related to the very cold water temperatures.

Recent SST Anomalies maps:
: 31st Mach 2013 see Fig. 15 (above)  
For: 3rd April 2013 see Fig,  22 (above)

Fig. 30; 5 April 2013

Fig. 31; 7. April 2013

Fig. 32; 8. April 2013

Fig.34 (same as Fig. 8) ; Forecast 3-10 April 2013

Fig. 34; Forecast 8-15. April 2013


 To Front Page

The cold March 2013 and any anthropogenic contribution
needs to be investigated and explained!

 Material winter 2012/13 and discussion at :

23. April 2013: Met-Off loose talk on cold March 2013? North and Baltic Sea should not be ignored! (ocl_9-8)

11. April 2013: 'Urgent' need to see if Arctic affects UK extreme cold? No! MetOffice should investigate the impact of human activities in the North- and Baltic Sea ! (co_9-4) 
03 April 2013: Did the cold March 2013 came from Siberia ? A not well founded claim! (ocl_9-9) 
29 March 2013: Cold March 2013 in company with March 1942 & 1917 (co 10-2)  
27. March 2013: Strong Start – Strong Ending; Winter 2012/13. About the Role of North- and Baltic Sea (2007seatraining 1310)
26. March 2013; March 2013 snow in the UK and the North Sea . Did human activities contributed? (ocl 10_2) 
21 March 2013; Cold March 2013 in UK and North Europe science should be able to explain! (ocl_10-3) 
07 March 2013:  Winter 2012/13 for Northern Europe is over! The Baltic and North Sea will prevent a surprise in March! (ocl-10_4)
19. January 2013: Northern Europe's bulwark against Asian cold from 19-31. (oc_12-8)
14. January 2013: North- and Baltic Sea influence Europe ’s winter 2012/2013 until now. (ocl_12_6) 
09 December 2012 (+ 21 & 26 Dec) : Are we heading to severe Baltic Sea ice conditions by 30th December 2012? (2007seatraining)


 Essays on arctic warming causes cold winters 

2013__Environmental Research Letters Volume 8 Number 1 Qiuhong Tang et al 2013 Environ. Res. Lett. 8 014036 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014036 
Cold winter extremes in northern continents linked to Arctic sea ice loss 
___”The results suggest that the winter atmospheric circulation at high northern latitudes associated with Arctic sea ice loss, especially in the winter, favours the occurrence of cold winter extremes at middle latitudes of the northern continents.”


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