Read the new Book Publication - 2012  -  at:
"Failures of Meteorology? Unable to Prevent Climate Change and World Wars?"



El Niño
Winter 2015/16 –versus- Winter 1939/40
5th Post


21 Oct

2. Post
22 Oct

Hurrican- Special

3. Post
19 Nov

4. Post
01 Dec

 5. Post

23 Dec 

7. Post 30/12 

Write to:

 04 Jan
Mild winters

9. Post

09 Jan

11. Post

12. Post
28 Jan

  03 Feb.

14 Post
11 Feb

12 March 

About the Author

Siberian freeze arrive in Europe - 
December 1939

Hitler’s war paved way for General Frost in 100 days.
5th Post: 16 December 2015
by Arnd Bernaerts

Big Picture

El Niño in December 1939 & 2015 is indicated in Fig. 1 & 2. The difference in weather condition in Europe is enormous, throughout the last few months. With the start of winter the gap increases dramatically. The last few months were pretty usual, in 1939 not (see previous posts). Severe cold flooded the whole of Europe in early December (More), marking the start of the three coldest winters in 100 years, together with a pronounced climatic change, from war to cold.




Fig. 1  DECEMBER 1939

Fig. 2 Sea surface Temperature , 15 Dec.2015

Fig 3 Temp- Forecast  16-24 December 2015

 A meteorologist at the weather service of the German Navy (‘Die Seewarte’ in Hamburg) observed:
“We noticed this especially in the increasing mildness of the winters,  which became more and more striking between 1900 and 1939, and surprisingly a series of three severe winters followed”  (Details)   



Nothing comparable has happen during the last months of 2015. Since May ‘Monster Godzilla El Niño” is promulgated by science  and the press, and still the „worst of this El Nino expected in coming months” (Fox). As the U.S. is likely to see some deviation with above-average temperatures in the West and northern half of the country with below-average favored in the southern Plains and along the Gulf Coast (Fig. 4), for Europe temperature forecast is well above average (cpc/ncep).

It starts – cold arrives

This example indicates well how winter arrived:  At Dresden there was massive snowfall between December 6 and 8, depositing snow up to a height of 25 cm (corresponding to a melted water amount of 50 liters per m²) after 36 hours of uninterrupted snowfall and a temperature drop to -7° C. Few weeks later Dresden recorded the coldest January in 112 years, but it may have been even longer; as the records had only been made since 1828.

That came as a big surprise, as November temperatures in Europe had been significantly above average (Fig. 5), but quickly changed North Germany (Fig. 6 & 7).




Fig. 5  November Anomaly 2015

Fig. 6  - Winter temperatuiire 1939/40

Fig. 7 - Winter temperatuiire 1939/40

Particular dramatic was the early sea ice in the German Bight, starting already around the 16/17 December, even about two weeks earlier than in Western Baltic. More details later. 

All daily weather maps in December 1939

1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 1920, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31

Since 11th December 1939 high pressure system governed Europe

Early sea ice proves: man made!

By mid December 1939 unusual happened. Since 16th December sea ice formed along the German Bight and remained up to 100 days. That could not really be, because November and early December was mild, cloudy and rainy with predominantly southwesterly winds.




Fig. 8  - 11 December 1939

Fig. 9  - 12 December 1939

Fig. 10 - 15 December 2015

 It was chilly in northern Germany only between 14 to 21 and 26 to 31 December. In these two periods, the mean low temperature at Helgoland was about -2 ° C, with a monthly average at +0.6 ° C. How could  under these conditions sea icing start so early, and to become the worst since reliable data are available since about 1900 (Sea-Ice German coasts )

The initial meteorological condition for this record can be traced back to principle conditions in first half of December.  There was early and extremely enduring sea ice under weather conditions within a fairly normal range. The most convincing explanation is that the German coastal waters temperatures must have been considerably lower as in other years. This brings an anthropogenic contribution into play. Since 1st September 1939 large parts of the German Navy operated in German Bight, laid several 10,000 sea mines and were attacked by the Royal Navy ships and air bombers. In the western Baltic naval activities was extremely high too. Heat absorbed during the summer season vanished too early.  [All Text]

Image to the right (Fig. 11) What a huge difference in sea surface temparature 1939 vs 2015


Fig. 11:  SST anonaly 15 December 2015


All Posts since October 2015 on:

El Niño
Winter 2015/16 –versus- Winter 1939/40

Introduction (20. Oct): Has El Niño a role on sub-cold winters in Europe?  A continuous comparison

Post 1 (21.Oct): Stefan Brönnimann claims: Extreme winter 1940-1942 due to El Niño! -19-

Post 2 (22.Oct): USA deprived of rain - October to December 1939 -18-

Post Special (24.Oct): Hurricane PATRICIA; 'Strongest ever' storm – End of October 2015 -18a-

Post 3 (19.Nov):  El Niño Autumn 1939 vs. 2015 -17-

Post 4 (01.Dec): Jet Stream blocked in late 1939  – By naval war not El Niño –-16-

Post 5 (16.Dec): Siberian freeze arrive in Europe -  December 1939 -15-

Post 6 (22.Dec): Merry Christmas and Peace upon Meteorology,……… -14-

Post 7 (30.Dec): Huge Difference – December 1939 & December 2015 – -13-

Post 8 (Special): Northern Europe’s Mild Winters. [Essay, about pages 12) -12-

Post 9 (04.Jan): On….the Met- Office asked: What’s been happening to our weather? -11-

Post 10 (09.Jan): Polish and German climate science on winter 1939/40.a shame!  -10-


Kindly look in again, and if you have suggestions email to:   

Back to 1st Post

Author: Dr. And Bernaerts, October 2015


About winter 1939/40 further reading:

“Failures of Meteorology! Unable to Prevent Climate Change and World Wars? Oceans Make Climate!”

     Back to top→→→

  To Front Page

  Older Posts

14 December 2014:  How serious is Met-Office to understand  a “weather bomb” 

14. June 2013: Met Office brainstorms UK bad weather, titles THE GUARDIAN – 13. June 2013 (ocl-7-9)

23. April 2013: Met-Off loose talk on cold March 2013? North and Baltic Sea should not be ignored! (ocl_9-8)
11. April 2013: 'Urgent' need to see if Arctic affects UK extreme cold? No! MetOffice should investigate the impact of human activities in the North- and Baltic Sea ! (co_9-4) 
03 April 2013: Did the cold March 2013 came from Siberia ? A not well founded claim! (ocl_9-9) 
29 March 2013: Cold March 2013 in company with March 1942 & 1917 (co 10-2)  
27. March 2013: Strong Start – Strong Ending; Winter 2012/13. About the Role of North- and Baltic Sea (2007seatraining 1310)
26. March 2013; March 2013 snow in the UK and the North Sea . Did human activities contributed? (ocl 10_2) 
21 March 2013; Cold March 2013 in UK and North Europe science should be able to explain! (ocl_10-3) 
07 March 2013:  Winter 2012/13 for Northern Europe is over! The Baltic and North Sea will prevent a surprise in March! (ocl-10_4)
19. January 2013: Northern Europe's bulwark against Asian cold from 19-31. (oc_12-8)
14. January 2013: North- and Baltic Sea influence Europe ’s winter 2012/2013 until now. (ocl_12_6) 
09 December 2012 (+ 21 & 26 Dec) : Are we heading to severe Baltic Sea ice conditions by 30th December 2012? (2007seatraining)


 Essays on arctic warming causes cold winters 

2013__Environmental Research Letters Volume 8 Number 1 Qiuhong Tang et al 2013 Environ. Res. Lett. 8 014036 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014036 
Cold winter extremes in northern continents linked to Arctic sea ice loss 
___”The results suggest that the winter atmospheric circulation at high northern latitudes associated with Arctic sea ice loss, especially in the winter, favours the occurrence of cold winter extremes at middle latitudes of the northern continents.”


 Back to Front Page





September 1939 
30 daily weather maps 

Sea Ice Condition 
Baltic Sea WWII


Click image to enlarge


Book extract:

C2.  Records, Records, Records – Introduction
to the unexpected