Indicating that “In this blog our Chief Scientist, Professor Dame Julia Slingo, discusses what factors may have influenced the record breaking weather we have seen in recent weeks”; one can only wonder how little attention is paid to historical precedence, in this case to corresponding months during pronounced El Nino events, namely 1939/40 and during the last months this year. One need only to look at the first three items raised by Dame Julia Slingo, and it is obvious that the difference are so great that neither raising them, nor discussing them, not even mentioning them is a big failure and insufficient scientific research and analysis.

Met-Off_1^st paragraph

December 2015 will go down in meteorological history as one of the wettest – and warmest – on record.

COMMENT

Sept/Oct/Nov 1939 were extreme wet in West-Europe, incl. southern UK.

Met-Off_1^st paragraph

December 2015 will go down in meteorological history as one of the warmest – on record.

Comment

December 1939 temperatures dropped sharply since mid-December

Met-Off _3^rd paragraph

Throughout the month, the winds have come from the south or southwest,

Comment

In October 1939 onward wind came from NE a very rare occasion.

Met-Off _6^th paragraph

However, it does seem that this year the unusual warmth of the North East Pacific Ocean may have altered the position of these waves across North America and into the Atlantic sector,

Comment

December 1939 shows over Russia a pronounced positive deviation instead of a negative anomaly.

See the analysis by
Erkki Palosuo (1953)

- Next box -

Finnish ice expert Erkki Palosuo (1953) outlined the early winter weather phenomenon over the Baltic as follows

By January 15, the atmospheric pressure in Greenland had reached a remarkably high level (1065mb). As low pressure simultaneously prevailed in Central Russia (995mb) very cold air began to flow westward at high speed from the northern side of this low pressure area, and a very severe frosty period began in the region of the Baltic. The outbreak of cold air resulted in an independent cold air pool (“Kaltlufttropfen”) in Germany which persisted in the area for nearly a week. The cold air pool in the German area began to move on January 24 towards the Baltic region from where, reinforced, it pushed back to German territory on February 7. On February 12, its centre was in the region of Hamburg , from where, moving slowly, it arrived in East Germany about February 20.
(see: ‘section i’ at : http://www.seaclimate.com/c/c7/c7.html )

Conclusion:

The first to notice is the certainty that the extreme winter 1939/40 was not caused by the El Niño event in place in 1939. The second point is that the Met-Office cannot seriously discuss current weather conditions with complete ignorance of the big deviation from long term winter weather 1939/40. This winter came not out of the blue, but was man-made. That is what weather services and climate research should be able to explain the general public.

For Information and Record

The weather drama in December 1939 intensified in in January 2016 lasting until end of February. To give the reader a better feeling of the war time 76 ago, we first provide some NYT excerpts (02-07 January 1940), and subsequently a number of today weather graphics (01-04 January) for the record, as the blog will continue investigating the claim by Prof. S. Brönnimann (HERE) that the extreme winter weather stood in correlation with an El Niño event. The next 6-8 weeks will prove him or me wrong.

empty

Kindly look in again, and if you have suggestions email to: dr_arnd@yahoo.de.

All Posts since October 2015 on:

El Niño
Winter 2015/16 –versus- Winter 1939/40

Introduction (20. Oct): Has El Niño a role on sub-cold winters in Europe? A continuous comparison

Post 1 (21.Oct): Stefan Brönnimann claims: Extreme winter 1940-1942 due to El Niño! -19-

Post 2 (22.Oct): USA deprived of rain - October to December 1939 -18-

Post Special (24.Oct): Hurricane PATRICIA; 'Strongest ever' storm – End of October 2015 -18a-

Post 3 (19.Nov): El Niño Autumn 1939 vs. 2015 -17-

Post 4 (01.Dec): Jet Stream blocked in late 1939 – By naval war not El Niño –-16-

Post 5 (16.Dec): Siberian freeze arrive in Europe - December 1939 -15-

Post 6 (22.Dec): Merry Christmas and Peace upon Meteorology,……… -14-

Post 7 (30.Dec): Huge Difference – December 1939 & December 2015 – -13-

Post 8 (Special): Northern Europe’s Mild Winters. [Essay, about pages 12) -12-

Post 9 (04.Jan): On….the Met- Office asked: What’s been happening to our weather? -11-

Post 10 (09.Jan): Polish and German climate science on winter 1939/40.a shame! -10-

Back to 1st Post

Author: Dr. And Bernaerts, 2016

About winter 1939/40 further reading:

“Failures of Meteorology! Unable to Prevent Climate Change and World Wars? Oceans Make Climate!”
http://www.seaclimate.com/

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Older Posts

14 December 2014: How serious is Met-Office to understand a “weather bomb”

14. June 2013: Met Office brainstorms UK bad weather, titles THE GUARDIAN – 13. June 2013 (ocl-7-9)

23. April 2013: Met-Off loose talk on cold March 2013? North and Baltic Sea should not be ignored! (ocl_9-8)
11. April 2013: 'Urgent' need to see if Arctic affects UK extreme cold? No! MetOffice should investigate the impact of human activities in the North- and Baltic Sea ! (co_9-4)
03 April 2013: Did the cold March 2013 came from Siberia ? A not well founded claim! (ocl_9-9)
29 March 2013: Cold March 2013 in company with March 1942 & 1917 (co 10-2)
27. March 2013: Strong Start – Strong Ending; Winter 2012/13. About the Role of North- and Baltic Sea (2007seatraining 1310)
26. March 2013; March 2013 snow in the UK and the North Sea . Did human activities contributed? (ocl 10_2)
21 March 2013; Cold March 2013 in UK and North Europe science should be able to explain! (ocl_10-3)
07 March 2013: Winter 2012/13 for Northern Europe is over! The Baltic and North Sea will prevent a surprise in March! (ocl-10_4)
19. January 2013: Northern Europe's bulwark against Asian cold from 19-31. (oc_12-8)
14. January 2013: North- and Baltic Sea influence Europe ’s winter 2012/2013 until now. (ocl_12_6)
09 December 2012 (+ 21 & 26 Dec) : Are we heading to severe Baltic Sea ice conditions by 30th December 2012? (2007seatraining)

Essays on arctic warming causes cold winters

2013__Environmental Research Letters Volume 8 Number 1 Qiuhong Tang et al 2013 Environ. Res. Lett. 8 014036 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014036
Cold winter extremes in northern continents linked to Arctic sea ice loss http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/1/014036 ___”The results suggest that the winter atmospheric circulation at high northern latitudes associated with Arctic sea ice loss, especially in the winter, favours the occurrence of cold winter extremes at middle latitudes of the northern continents.”

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Material
INFO

Euro-Countries
Temp.-Trend

Nasa-Global
Temp.-1939-1942

September 1939
30 daily weather maps

Sea Ice Condition
Baltic Sea WWII

Book extract:

C2. Records, Records, Records – Introduction
to the unexpected