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El Niño
Winter 2015/16 –versus- Winter 1939/40
12th Post - 28January 2016

Intro-
duction

1.Post
21 Oct

2. Post
22 Oct

 PATRICIA
Hurrican- Special

3. Post
19 Nov

4. Post
01 Dec

 5. Post
 16 Dec

Christmas
HERE

7. Post 30/12

 Suggestions?
Write to:

8.Post-Special 
 04 Jan
Mild winters

9. Post
05.Jan

10. Post
09 Jan.

11. Post
25.Jan.2016

12. Post
28 Jan


13.Post
  03 Feb.

14 Post
11 Feb

15.Post
12 March

 dr_arnd(x)yahoo.de
About the Author

 

There is no connection between El Niño and a cold winter in Europe

 

Prof. Stephan Brönnimann is evidently wrong. His claim in Nature (2004) is little more than faith and scientifically unsatisfactory founded. One need only to compare the differences in February temperatures 1940 and 2016.
by Arnd Bernaerts

READ. Introduction;  Post 1; Post 3: Post 7; Post 10;

 







CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS  
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society   14 January 2016 (Full PDF)

Synopsis:  A strong El Niño  is expected to gradually weaken through spring 2016,  and to transition to ENSO-neutral during late spring or early summer.

A strong El Niño continued during  December,  with  well above-average  sea surface temperatures(SSTs) across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). All weekly Niño indices decreased slightly from the previous month (Fig. 2).  The subsurface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, while still  well  above average,  weakened  (Fig. 3)  due to  an upwelling  equatorial oceanic  Kelvin wave (Fig.  4).   Significant  low-level  westerly  wind  anomalies  and  upper-level  easterly  wind  anomalies continued  over  much  of the  tropical  Pacific.  During the last week, another westerly wind burst occurred in  the  east-central  Pacific.    The  traditional  and  equatorial  Southern  Oscillation  Index  (SOI)  values
remained  strongly  negative.  Also,  convection  remained strong  over the central  and east-central  tropical Pacific,  and  suppressed over Indonesia  (Fig. 5).  Collectively, these  atmospheric and oceanic  anomalies reflect the continuation of a strong El Niño episode.   Cont///

 
Below the status of El Niño (Nov-Dec-2015)

 

 

 

 

EL NIÑO
Synopsis
NCEP/15/Jan/16

ENSO: Recent Evolution
NOAA / 25/Jan/16

 

 

 

 

A strong El Niño at the end of Jasnuary 2016 is completely different to January/February 1940


 

 

 

 


 

 

 

 

 

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ADD. I: There is no link between
El Niño and January 1940
"Right Prof. Stefan Brönnimann”?

That is one of the questions to start the series in last October  HERE.

El Niño still runs strong in the Pacific showing worldwide some typical weather pattern. As far as Europe is mentioned the  forecast expects temperature above average in the first half period of winter, and lower towards winter’s end.

 

What a big difference between January 1039 and January 2016, not only a little but tremendously. There might be some small similarities, for example in the United States  (see HERE) and the US-January-1940-Temp-Map, or three cold days in Siedlce last week from 03-05 January.  The Polish cold record was more than 20°C lower, and the cold remained, and got even worst.

 

 

 

Today the situation look very different. Forecasts expect temperature well above average. Until now this winter proves that any claim the war winter 1939/40 has anything to do is completely unfounded. Further Reading

QUESTION: ”Prof. Stefan Brönnimann is it not high time to get things right and to apologize for the grand mistake made a decade ago with your Letter to Nature (NATURE |VOL 431|21 OCTOBER 2004)”

 

The current status of El Niño (Nov-Dec-2015)

 

Box
empty

 

 

 





  BACK to TOP

 

All Posts since October 2015 on:

El Niño
Winter 2015/16 –versus- Winter 1939/40

Introduction (20. Oct): Has El Niño a role on sub-cold winters in Europe?  A continuous comparison

Post 1 (21.Oct): Stefan Brönnimann claims: Extreme winter 1940-1942 due to El Niño! -19-

Post 2 (22.Oct): USA deprived of rain - October to December 1939 -18-

Post Special (24.Oct): Hurricane PATRICIA; 'Strongest ever' storm – End of October 2015 -18a-

Post 3 (19.Nov):  El Niño Autumn 1939 vs. 2015 -17-

Post 4 (01.Dec): Jet Stream blocked in late 1939  – By naval war not El Niño –-16-

Post 5 (16.Dec): Siberian freeze arrive in Europe -  December 1939 -15-

Post 6 (22.Dec): Merry Christmas and Peace upon Meteorology,……… -14-

Post 7 (30.Dec): Huge Difference – December 1939 & December 2015 – -13-

Post 8 (Special): Northern Europe’s Mild Winters. [Essay, about pages 12) -12-

Post 9 (04.Jan): On….the Met- Office asked: What’s been happening to our weather? -11-

Post 10 (09.Jan): Polish and German climate science on winter 1939/40.a shame!  -10-


 

 

 













Kindly look in again, and if you have suggestions email to: dr_arnd@yahoo.de.   




Back to 1st Post

Author: Dr. And Bernaerts, 2016

 

About winter 1939/40 further reading:

“Failures of Meteorology! Unable to Prevent Climate Change and World Wars? Oceans Make Climate!” 
http://www.seaclimate.com/

     Back to top→→→

  To Front Page

  Older Posts

14 December 2014:  How serious is Met-Office to understand  a “weather bomb” 

14. June 2013: Met Office brainstorms UK bad weather, titles THE GUARDIAN – 13. June 2013 (ocl-7-9)

23. April 2013: Met-Off loose talk on cold March 2013? North and Baltic Sea should not be ignored! (ocl_9-8)
11. April 2013: 'Urgent' need to see if Arctic affects UK extreme cold? No! MetOffice should investigate the impact of human activities in the North- and Baltic Sea ! (co_9-4) 
03 April 2013: Did the cold March 2013 came from Siberia ? A not well founded claim! (ocl_9-9) 
29 March 2013: Cold March 2013 in company with March 1942 & 1917 (co 10-2)  
27. March 2013: Strong Start – Strong Ending; Winter 2012/13. About the Role of North- and Baltic Sea (2007seatraining 1310)
26. March 2013; March 2013 snow in the UK and the North Sea . Did human activities contributed? (ocl 10_2) 
21 March 2013; Cold March 2013 in UK and North Europe science should be able to explain! (ocl_10-3) 
07 March 2013:  Winter 2012/13 for Northern Europe is over! The Baltic and North Sea will prevent a surprise in March! (ocl-10_4)
19. January 2013: Northern Europe's bulwark against Asian cold from 19-31. (oc_12-8)
14. January 2013: North- and Baltic Sea influence Europe ’s winter 2012/2013 until now. (ocl_12_6) 
09 December 2012 (+ 21 & 26 Dec) : Are we heading to severe Baltic Sea ice conditions by 30th December 2012? (2007seatraining)

 

 Essays on arctic warming causes cold winters 

2013__Environmental Research Letters Volume 8 Number 1 Qiuhong Tang et al 2013 Environ. Res. Lett. 8 014036 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014036 
Cold winter extremes in northern continents linked to Arctic sea ice loss  http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/1/014036 
___”The results suggest that the winter atmospheric circulation at high northern latitudes associated with Arctic sea ice loss, especially in the winter, favours the occurrence of cold winter extremes at middle latitudes of the northern continents.”

 

 Back to Front Page

                                

Material 
  INFO

Euro-Countries
Temp.-Trend

Nasa-Global
Temp.-1939-1942

September 1939 
30 daily weather maps 

Sea Ice Condition 
Baltic Sea WWII

 

All Posts since
October 2015 on:

El Niño
Winter 2015/16 –
versus-
Winter 1939/40

Introduction (20. Oct): Has El Niño a role on sub-cold winters in Europe?  A continuous comparison

Post 1 (21.Oct): Stefan Brönnimann claims: Extreme winter 1940-1942 due to El Niño! -19-

Post 2 (22.Oct): USA deprived of rain - October to December 1939 -18-

Post Special (24.Oct): Hurricane PATRICIA; 'Strongest ever' storm – End of October 2015 -18a-

Post 3 (19.Nov):  El Niño Autumn 1939 vs. 2015 -17-

Post 4 (01.Dec): Jet Stream blocked in late 1939  – By naval war not El Niño –-16-

Post 5 (16.Dec): Siberian freeze arrive in Europe -  December 1939 -15-

Post 6 (22.Dec): Merry Christmas and Peace upon Meteorology,……… -14-

Post 7 (30.Dec): Huge Difference – December 1939 & December 2015 – -13-

Post 8 (Special): Northern Europe’s Mild Winters. [Essay, about pages 12) -12-

Post 9 (04.Jan): On….the Met- Office asked: What’s been happening to our weather? -11-

Post 10 (09.Jan): Polish and German climate science on winter 1939/40.a shame!  -10-

Post 11 (25. Jan): Ice Drama January 1940 - Now Heat Record  
But Meteorology  is not interested!  -9-:



 


Book extract:

C2.  Records, Records, Records – Introduction
to the unexpected

 

 Selection of previous posts:

14 December 2014: How serious is MetOffice to understand a “weather bomb"

07. July 2013: Competent science should know it since long: “Imprint of Southern Ocean eddies on winds, clouds and rainfall” (ocl_6-9)

14. June 2013: Met Office brainstorms UK bad weather, titles THE GUARDIAN – 13. June 2013 (ocl-7-9)

23. April 2013: Met-Off loose talk on cold March 2013?

11. April 2013: 'Urgent' need to see if Arctic affects UK extreme cold? No! MetOffice should investigate the impact of human activities in the North- and Baltic Sea ! (co_9-4)
 
04 April 2013: Did the cold March 2013 come from Siberia ?  A not well founded claim!

 29 March 2012: Cold March 2013 in company with March 1942 & 1917 (co 10-2)

26. March 2013; March 2013 snow in the UK and the North Sea . Did human activities contributed? (ocl 10_2)

21 March 2013; Cold March 2013 in UK and North Europe science should be able to explain! (ocl_10-3)

7. March 2013:   Winter 2012/13 for Northern Europe is over! The Baltic and North Sea will prevent a surprise in March! (ocl 10-4)

19. Jan. 2013; Northern Europe  
bulwark against Asian cold
 from 19-31. January 2013 (co-12-8)

14. January 2013: North- and Baltic Sea influence Europe ’s winter 2012/2013 until now. --left-- (COL-12-6)

07. Jan. 2013: Record cold in Poland ! Minus 41°C on 11th Jan.1940 in Siedlce! (OCL-12-7)

23. Dec. 2012 + Update 17/01:  Had the Battle of Stalingrad been hampered by unusual low temperatures in December 1942? (OCL-12-8 

December 15, 2012
The impact of shipping on ocean and global warming (COL-12-9)

December 2012:
Roger Pielke Sr. and Climate Definition
- A field of jargon words and misuse of definitions –
(whatisclimate)

Dec. 09. 2012 (+ updates): 
Are we heading to severe   Baltic Sea ice conditions by 30th December 2012? (2007seatraining)