El Niño
Winter 2015/16 –versus- Winter 1939/40
4th Post

Jet Stream blocked in late 1939
 – By naval war not El Niño –
4th Post
Posted: 01 December 2015

West-Wind, Jet Stream, Blocks

The flow of war moisture air from the North Atlantic eastwards to Siberia is the guarantor for modest winter in Europe. At a time meteorology knew little about the jet stream (at around 9–12 km above sea level), they spoke about what they could see and feel, the west-wind drift (WWD). During WWII flyers consistently noticed westerly tailwinds in excess of 160 km/h in flights, for example, from the US to the UK. WWII not only increased understanding what is going on in the upper atmosphere, but on the ground meteorology did not grasp that naval war since 1st September 1939  influenced ‘usual’ weather pattern, by a huge weather-blocking four months later, providing Europe with the coldest winter for more than 100 years.

Blocks in meteorology are large-scale patterns in the atmospheric pressure field that are nearly stationary, effectively "blocking" or redirecting migratory cyclones. They are also known as blocking highs or blocking anticyclones.

In northern Europe anticyclonic blocks over western Russia and Scandinavia during the winter months can bring sub-zero easterly winds on their southern flanks, sometimes extending into the Atlantic Ocean and forcing the prevailing jet stream as far south as Portugal and Spain. Northern and Western European severe winters are caused by such blocks. (wikipedia)

As all WWII armies, needed for their warfare strategies the best weather information possible. Data from  that time are available in huge quantity, but climatic research is blind to use them to explain the presumably most pronounce sudden weather changes during WWII, particularly the extreme winters in Europe 1939/40, 1940/41 and 1941/41.

Observation by the German naval weather service (Seewarte)

- Extracts from “Climate Change and Naval War” -

23 September 1939; With the advance of Atlantic air into Middle Europe a more forceful cyclone can develop along this channel (Rinne) which could extend its influence in the Middle Europe later.

29 September 1939; Northwest-European high–pressure area (anticyclone), dominated the general weather for a long time. This high, that usually is located far to the East (cf. the weather situation a year earlier) is responsible for the well-known late summer period of fine weather, now pushed so far to the West that Germany lay at its Eastern rim and thus got into the cold Northern stream which was interspersed with disturbances.

October 1939 Temp.-Anomaly

13 October 1939; Along with a peripheral low, the first effective gust of maritime air has reached Northern Germany . A continuous WWD, however, cannot be expected yet..

23 October 1939; Usual weather is changing now and the high pressure bridge which links the Azores high with the West Russian high is broken up. A transition to a west wind situation is on the verge of the German seas.

 28 October 1939; Since a high pressure bridge from Middle Scandinavia to Scotland remains, a further stream of cold air from the Nordic Sea area is cut off.

November 1939 Temp.-Anomaly

14 November 1939; It seems that a mainly sectional circulation is going to take over in the general weather situation: its pressure field will be characterized by a long high pressure zone – Azores –Southern Germany – Southern Russia – and WWD-like turbulence activity in the North of these regions.

 29 November 1939; West Siberian high is slowly retreating towards the East thereby allowing the disturbance coming from the West to penetrate still deeper into the regions of European Russia. 

 30 November 1939; A very distinct west wind weather situation rules over North and Middle Europe.

The first few days of December see attempts by rather weak cyclonic storms to reclaim their common path of travel from the Atlantic to the Eastern hemisphere. By 7^th December 1939 a high pressure forms near Aachen (West Germany/Belgium), stretching to Norway , the ‘last straw’ that led to a severe winter condition. The WWD widely was blocked. Extreme cold could take reign up to the eastern North Atlantic. Development of severe weather conditions during the first war winter of 1939/40 was not an erratic incident by nature. This could be well illustrated by various comments on the missing “west-wind-drift” by meteorologists responsible for the preparation of daily weather charts.

El Nino 2015 and autumn weather in Europe

El Nino continues to go strong. To special signal was felt in Europe throughout autumn, compared with previous years. No big change in wind direction, or precipitation of up to 300% of average as in autumn 1939. The North Sea and Baltic SST were well above average since last September. Jet stream and WWD pass into and trough Europe without hindrance. No change can be assumed  well to mid of December 2015. The current situation is normal, which was not the case in 1939 at this time.    

Summary

Throughout autumn weather pattern changed significantly, the wind direction, precipitation,, (More: HERE) and the move of cyclones. All signs indicated strongly the build-up of a blocking system. The drama started in December 1939, which will be discussed in the next post (Post 5) in about three weeks. Kindly look in again, and if you have suggestions email to: dr_arnd@yahoo.de.   

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All Posts since October 2015 on:

El Niño
Winter 2015/16 –versus- Winter 1939/40

Introduction (20. Oct): Has El Niño a role on sub-cold winters in Europe?  A continuous comparison

Post 1 (21.Oct): Stefan Brönnimann claims: Extreme winter 1940-1942 due to El Niño! -19-

Post 2 (22.Oct): USA deprived of rain - October to December 1939 -18-

Post Special (24.Oct): Hurricane PATRICIA; 'Strongest ever' storm – End of October 2015 -18a-

Post 3 (19.Nov):  El Niño Autumn 1939 vs. 2015 -17-

Post 4 (01.Dec): Jet Stream blocked in late 1939  – By naval war not El Niño –-16-

Post 5 (16.Dec): Siberian freeze arrive in Europe -  December 1939 -15-

Post 6 (22.Dec): Merry Christmas and Peace upon Meteorology,……… -14-

Post 7 (30.Dec): Huge Difference – December 1939 & December 2015 – -13-

Post 8 (Special): Northern Europe’s Mild Winters. [Essay, about pages 12) -12-

Post 9 (04.Jan): On….the Met- Office asked: What’s been happening to our weather? -11-

Post 10 (09.Jan): Polish and German climate science on winter 1939/40.a shame!  -10-

Author: Dr. And Bernaerts, October 2015

 

About winter 1939/40 further reading:

“Failures of Meteorology! Unable to Prevent Climate Change and World Wars? Oceans Make Climate!” 
http://www.seaclimate.com/

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09 December 2012 (+ 21 & 26 Dec) : Are we heading to severe Baltic Sea ice conditions by 30th December 2012? (2007seatraining)

 Essays on arctic warming causes cold winters 

2013__Environmental Research Letters Volume 8 Number 1 Qiuhong Tang et al 2013 Environ. Res. Lett. 8 014036 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014036 
Cold winter extremes in northern continents linked to Arctic sea ice loss  http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/1/014036  ___”The results suggest that the winter atmospheric circulation at high northern latitudes associated with Arctic sea ice loss, especially in the winter, favours the occurrence of cold winter extremes at middle latitudes of the northern continents.”

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