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El Niņo
Winter 2015/16 –versus-
Winter 1939/40


  7th Post - 30 Dec. 2015


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Huge Difference – December 1939 &  December 2015 –
A. Science not able or unwilling to notice it?

B.  Turkey Earth Quake – 27. December 1939

Posted: 30 December 2015 (ocl_12-13)

 The difference of two El Niņo towards the end of the year in 1939 and 2015 is incredible huge. This year science claims that December is well on track to become the warmest on record. The NYT speaks of “Tropical Christmas”, Met-Office about the warmest December since records began in 1910, and few days before New Year’s Eve a big Icelandic storms “will draw northward an incredible surge of warmth pushing temperatures at the North Pole over 50 degrees above normal.             Right Fig 1-2

Anomaly Forecast 1st week 2016

  This is mind-boggling” (Washingtion Post, 28Dec.) even though re-analysis dataset suggests it is closer to -20 degrees (-29 Celsius).

Overview: El Niņo and SST (Fig. 3-6)




 What all this observation do not mention, 1938/39 was the warmest period since about 1850, 1939 is, as 2015, regarded as a year with a strong El Niņo, but the air temperatures across the Northern Hemisphere are very different in December. Particularly Europe was affected, which is the main aspect of the various posts since October 2015. In the previous post (23.Dec.) we mentioned the break-down of weather. Minus 34°C on Christmas Day.

But the arrival of winter was also felt in more southern regions:     


  __December 28, 1939; Snow storms sweep Denmark (Frankfurter Zeitung, December 29, 1939); _December 29; Ice closes Danube to German supplies; Rail traffic expected to be hampered by snow (NYT, Dec. 30);
__December 29; From Agram in Yugoslavia temperature of minus 32°C is reported.  (Neue Zurcher Zeitung, Dec. 31);
__December 30; Milan –10°C. during Saturday night. Genoa and Triest heavy snow storms (Neue Zurcher Zeitung, Dec. 31, 1939).

  __December 30; “An unprecedented and severe snow storm in Naples region today indirectly caused a train wreck in…”. “ Rome ’s heaviest snowfall in recorded history - six inches - …” (NYT, December 31, 1939, and the  Neue Zürcher Zeitung, Jan. 2, 1940), but snow fall lasted for only eight hours. The snow melted away in a few hours on January 1st 1940;

Weather charts 30/31 December 1939/2015   (Fig 6-9)




__December 30; Rome covered by 25-30 cm snow; Venice minus 5°C; Finland’s Arctic Front minus 48°C; record cold in Sweden and Norway with minus 40°C; severe cold in Yugoslavia with minus 23°C (Frankfurter Zeitung);
__December 31; cold wave in Bulgaria ;, the lowest values at Rustschuk on the Danube River with minus 20°C. Banja Luka/Westbosnia: minus 27°C; in Slovenian cities minus 26°C.      
__ Dec. 31st 1940; The Atlantic Island Madeira reports a violent storm on Sunday (December 31) with heavy flooding.
(Neue Zurcher Zeitung, January 2 1940).   Source:

The winter arrived in Europe well before a devastating earth quake struck Turkey in late December, which is either little investigated in correlation with El Niņo and early winter condition.

A.  Turkey Earth Quake – 27. December 1939

(Extract from Book-Chapter 2_51)

“Once more a great disaster has visited a country, caused this time not by man’s inhumanity to man, but by a gigantic force of nature.” - “It is not likely that the new upheavals will teach the geologist anything new. They are evidence that nature has not yet finished with the earth.” - “What we urgently need is some method of predicting quakes and warning a threatened population.” (Extracts from the NYT Commentary on 29 December 1939). 

On Wednesday 27th December 1939 (after foreshock on 26th 23:57:16h G.C.T), a devastating earthquake in the north-easterly highlands of Anatolia shook the whole of Turkey, at 1:57:35 hours a.m. local time. There had been foreshocks on 21st November 1939 near Terzhan/Turkey, and tremors were reported in England, San Jose, Manila, etc. (NYT, 22 December 1939). A quake with a force of 8 recorded on the Richter scale shock the Anatolia earth taking the life of about 35,000, injuring 100,000 and making several hundred thousand homeless. 90 villages and 15 cities over an area of 30,000 square kilometres were completely destroyed. The earthquake produced a tsunami wave of up to 3-4 metres, respectively of a one meter high wave crossing the eastern part of the Black Sea from the South to the North, as recorded in several Russian stations. What followed after the earthquakes were bitter cold, storms, heavy rains, floods and snow. It became a very hard period for the Turkish people. Most of their powerful neighbours were at war, while their government tried to manage the matter on its own. This massive earthquake occurred during the transition from autumn weather to winter. What were the weather conditions when the event happened? What was the contribution of this event to the extreme war winter 1939/40 in Europe? The arctic winter of 1939/40 was already well on its way in December. Extracts from:  NYT, 28.Dec.39;   NYT, 29.Dec.39;   NYT, 31.Dec.39;  

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Entire Analysis


 Taking into account events listed below, it is quite obvious that the quake on 27th December 1939 had a devastating meteorological effect for Turkey and the region, extending temporarily up to Italy. On the other hand, there is hardly any indication that the quake and the tsunami that were followed by a substantial low pressure in the Black Sea region had any influence on the Northern and Central European weather processing conditions. This part was clearly influenced by other forces that had already been prevalent when the Turkish quake occurred. But it should be noted that, at a very early time of the winter season plenty of cold air could travel easily from Asia to the south-western flank of Europe, which presumably contributed to the cold spell in the Danube river countries on 22nd December, although the cyclone (970mb) over the Gulf of Bothnia/ North Finland too could have assisted this event.

 The tsunami of 27th December may have contributed, though in a small measure, to the wider regional conditions leading to the severe war winter of 1939/40. The freezing of the sea near Odessa in early January is within the average. Certain extreme situations (e.g. stormy conditions in late February) can be attributed to the unusual weather conditions in Central and Northern Europe during January and February 1940.

Last days in 1939 – A Chronicle
(which far from complete)

28 December 1939; 6,000 die in Turkey as quakes are felt around the world. Successive aftershocks take heavy toll of life and property in Anatolia regions. Los Angeles Area shaken. Central America is affected – London seismograph broken due to severity of tremors. (NYT, 28 December 1939). “Three additional tremors, subzero weather (minus 17°C) and blizzard winds, ..” - “Temperatures 22 degrees below zero (minus 30°C) and strong winds from the Black Sea claimed many victims…” (NYT, 29 December 1939).

 28 December 1939; Tremors registered in California (116 miles south of Berkeley) South Africa, Italy. (NYT 29 December 1939).

 28 December 1939; In New York record cold of 11.9° F; Four inches of snow reported in parts of State; Storms throughout the East. (NYT, 28 December 1939).

 28 December 1939; Pope to visit the Italian King Victor Emmanuel today, for the first time since 1870, (NYT, 28 December 1939), see next: “28 December 1939”.

 28 December 1939; Rome. “A cold dreary rain did nothing to dim the brilliance of the ceremony that began shortly before 10 o’clock.” - “ ….to see the Pope at all in such a weather.” (NYT, 29 December 1939).

 29 December 1939; “10,000 soldiers with shovels, had cut through mountainous drifts of snow” - “The continued cold – as low as 22 degrees below zero Fahrenheit – seemed to be the greatest threat.” (NYT, 30 December 1939).

 29 December 1939; Temperatures in Turkey temporarily minus 30°C. Casualties in the Erzingan’s region about 42,000. (Neue Zürcher Zeitung, 29 December 1939).

 29 December 1939; Ice closes Danube to German supplies; Rail traffic expected to be hampered by snow (NYT, 30 December 1939) “Cold winds have been blowing recently westwards from Russia, and the constantly low temperature in the river valley indicates a general freeze will set in soon.” (NYT, ditto).

 29 December 1939; From Agram in Yugoslavia minus temperatures of 32°C are reported.  (Neue Zürcher Zeitung, 31 December 1939).

 30 December 1939; Turkey: New quakes add to toll in Turkey. Many more villages reported destroyed – Relief efforts hampered. Floods in West Anatolia. Erzingan’s casualties in quake at 42,000 – Allied and other Governments speed aid. (NYT, 31 December 1939).

 30 December 1939; “In Naples region today an unprecedented severe snow storm…”. Rome’s heaviest snowfall in recorded history - six inches - made the Romans feel as New Yorkers did in the 1888 blizzard. There had been nothing closer to this since the snowfall for three days from December 16 to 18, 1846”. (NYT, 31 December 1939) .

 30 December 1939; Cold wave over the Riviera. Genoa rapid fall of temperature, extensive snowstorm. Trieste reports heavy winter storms. Malians had –10°C. (Neue Zurcher Zeitung, 31 December 1939).

Entire Earth-Quake Analysis

All Posts since October 2015 on:

El Niņo
Winter 2015/16 –versus- Winter 1939/40

Introduction (20. Oct): Has El Niņo a role on sub-cold winters in Europe?  A continuous comparison

Post 1 (21.Oct): Stefan Brönnimann claims: Extreme winter 1940-1942 due to El Niņo! -19-

Post 2 (22.Oct): USA deprived of rain - October to December 1939 -18-

Post Special (24.Oct): Hurricane PATRICIA; 'Strongest ever' storm – End of October 2015 -18a-

Post 3 (19.Nov):  El Niņo Autumn 1939 vs. 2015 -17-

Post 4 (01.Dec): Jet Stream blocked in late 1939  – By naval war not El Niņo –-16-

Post 5 (16.Dec): Siberian freeze arrive in Europe -  December 1939 -15-

Post 6 (22.Dec): Merry Christmas and Peace upon Meteorology,……… -14-

Post 7 (30.Dec): Huge Difference – December 1939 & December 2015 – -13-

Post 8 (Special): Northern Europe’s Mild Winters. [Essay, about pages 12) -12-

Post 9 (04.Jan): On….the Met- Office asked: What’s been happening to our weather? -11-

Post 10 (09.Jan): Polish and German climate science on winter 1939/40.a shame!  -10-

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Kindly look in again, and if you have suggestions email to:   

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Author: Dr. And Bernaerts, October 2015


About winter 1939/40 further reading:

“Failures of Meteorology! Unable to Prevent Climate Change and World Wars? Oceans Make Climate!”

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  Older Posts

14 December 2014:  How serious is Met-Office to understand  a “weather bomb” 

14. June 2013: Met Office brainstorms UK bad weather, titles THE GUARDIAN – 13. June 2013 (ocl-7-9)

23. April 2013: Met-Off loose talk on cold March 2013? North and Baltic Sea should not be ignored! (ocl_9-8)
11. April 2013: 'Urgent' need to see if Arctic affects UK extreme cold? No! MetOffice should investigate the impact of human activities in the North- and Baltic Sea ! (co_9-4) 
03 April 2013: Did the cold March 2013 came from Siberia ? A not well founded claim! (ocl_9-9) 
29 March 2013: Cold March 2013 in company with March 1942 & 1917 (co 10-2)  
27. March 2013: Strong Start – Strong Ending; Winter 2012/13. About the Role of North- and Baltic Sea (2007seatraining 1310)
26. March 2013; March 2013 snow in the UK and the North Sea . Did human activities contributed? (ocl 10_2) 
21 March 2013; Cold March 2013 in UK and North Europe science should be able to explain! (ocl_10-3) 
07 March 2013:  Winter 2012/13 for Northern Europe is over! The Baltic and North Sea will prevent a surprise in March! (ocl-10_4)
19. January 2013: Northern Europe's bulwark against Asian cold from 19-31. (oc_12-8)
14. January 2013: North- and Baltic Sea influence Europe ’s winter 2012/2013 until now. (ocl_12_6) 
09 December 2012 (+ 21 & 26 Dec) : Are we heading to severe Baltic Sea ice conditions by 30th December 2012? (2007seatraining)


 Essays on arctic warming causes cold winters 

2013__Environmental Research Letters Volume 8 Number 1 Qiuhong Tang et al 2013 Environ. Res. Lett. 8 014036 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014036 
Cold winter extremes in northern continents linked to Arctic sea ice loss 
___”The results suggest that the winter atmospheric circulation at high northern latitudes associated with Arctic sea ice loss, especially in the winter, favours the occurrence of cold winter extremes at middle latitudes of the northern continents.”


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September 1939 
30 daily weather maps 

Sea Ice Condition 
Baltic Sea WWII



Book extract:

C2.  Records, Records, Records – Introduction
to the unexpected