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 04 Jan
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 dr_arnd(x)yahoo.de
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The extreme winters in WWII cannot be linked to El Niño, as claimed by Prof. S. Brönnimann

This cannot be accepted for two principle reasons:

·        It prevents urgent efforts to confirm or exclude any impact by warfare and naval war activities during WWII on extreme winter weather condition in Europe.

·        If positive it would prove that man is at least partly responsible for the three decades global cooling from 1940 to mid-1970s.

A thorough understanding of the extreme weather conditions during World War periods would also enhance a better understanding of El Niño and climate change matters. It could also be the first hard prove, that man did indeed changed climate. 

Ignoring this historical situation further on is irresponsible, and hardly a matter atmospheric science can be proud of. One has only to listen to Dr Nick Klingaman, climate scientist from the Department of Meteorology at the University of Reading, who admits that observational (Eq.-Pacific) records are still scarce, which make it difficult to predict the outcome of this year’s El Niño, but a slight tendency towards cooler winters is given.   

Nevertheless the list of possible impact Gonzilla El Niño may have is long. Concerning Europe’ winters accuweather (Oct.19) predicts: Extreme cold is also expected to be limited for northwest Europe as the core of the cold air builds over Scandinavia and then is unleashed southward with only brief periods of below-normal temperatures reaching northwest Europe, as harsh cold is to bypass London and Paris, with frequent storms to Southern France, Italy and Alps. (2) 

After months of hype about “Godzilla” El Niño 2015, NATURE (20 Jan.2016) published the following assertion a few days ago:

“Climate scientists this week began a research blitz to study El Niño, the climate trouble-maker that disrupts weather around much of the globe. For the next two months, US researchers will use specially outfitted planes, a research ship and hundreds of weather balloons to monitor the region in the tropical Pacific Ocean where El Niño forms. Ultimately, the scientists say, their measurements could help to improve weather forecasts and unlock secrets about how powerful El Niño events evolve.”
 

Although the El Niño 1939/40 is even less investigated Prof. Stephan Brönnimann and Colleagues related the first WWII winter and the subsequent two extreme European war winters to an El Niño in a Letter to NATURE (Vol. 431, 2004).  HERE1,  HERE2,  HERE3. They neither undertook any efforts to analyze any specific in regard to the El Niño in question, even less on any warfare matter, whether, land, air or sea, or many unusual weather conditions across Europe. The result is gross speculation and is far away from prudent and serious scientific research.  

One has only to look and compare the shown graphics from winter 1939/40 and 2015/16 (please consult also previous posts), which demonstrate that it is a grand failure of science to refuse investigation any aspect of anthropogenic influence on the extreme weather pattern during WWII and on the global cooling period from 1940 to mid-1970s.

El Niño still runs strong in the Pacific showing worldwide some typical weather pattern. As far as Europe is mentioned the  forecast expects temperature above average in the first half period of winter, and lower towards winter’s end.

The current status of El Niño (Nov-Dec-2015)

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